Forum:2007 Atlantic hurricane season
October Week 1 93L.INVEST AoI - N of Leeward Islands Big bunch of convection to the east of 92L is being looked at by NHC. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. --Patteroast 20:47, 5 October 2007 (UTC) :This system behind 92L seems to be stealing its thunder... SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW...CENTERED ABOUT 100 MILES NORTH OF PUERTO RICO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE DAY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND SOME FURTHER ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. :I'm surprised this isn't 93L yet. --Patteroast 00:05, 6 October 2007 (UTC) 93L.INVEST Well, well, busy aren't we? I only checked WeatherUnderground, BTW. What's weird is, WeatherUnderground is a crystal ball! It said that Humberto was Humberto and Krosa was a cat 4 before those things came true. Well, any thoughts? Surely, with this many INVESTS, one of them has to give me rain. We're now that overdroughted anymore, but a few more extratropical remnants would be nice :P . 2007Astro'sHurricane 01:08, 6 October 2007 (UTC) :Models initializing, up on NRL. 92L is taken down; it's been killed by this system, which stole most of its associated convection. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']](Talk) [[User:68-100-190-56/Looking_to_the_Eye_of_the_Storm|(The Project)]] 01:10, 6 October 2007 (UTC) ::Off as an INVEST, but some models, most notably GFS, merge this thing's remnants and turns it into a re-Juan, hitting anywhere between New York and Newfoundland. Talk about yikes. 2007Astro'sHurricane 00:53, 9 October 2007 (UTC) :::Should not be off as an invest. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']](Talk) [[User:68-100-190-56/Looking_to_the_Eye_of_the_Storm|(The Project)]] 01:30, 9 October 2007 (UTC) ::::If 93L is the thing directly south of Bermuda, I agree with you. I think it's the most interesting thing out there right now. It is a completely independant system with an established low pressure center an good cyclonic turning. Shear is iffy though, 10-20 knots. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 21:29, 9 October 2007 (UTC) That is correct. Let me point out here that despite the fact that storms, even this year, have formed in 10-20 knot wind shear, Jeff Masters considers it a physical impossibility. I hate that man with great force. This one should be watched. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']](Talk) [[User:68-100-190-56/Looking_to_the_Eye_of_the_Storm|(''The Project)]] 10:41, 10 October 2007 (UTC) :I continue to be impressed by this system and have no idea why nobody is paying any attention to it. It may never become anything, but it's certainly an area worth watching. Doesn't make sense. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 13:09, 10 October 2007 (UTC) ::Are you kidding me? This thing looks just like a sheared tropical cyclone. Could someone please tell me why nobody is noticeing? This is driving me nuts. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 13:47, 11 October 2007 (UTC) :::The reason is, my friend, I've spent the last 2 hours with my new D40. You're right, by the way. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']](Talk) [[User:68-100-190-56/Looking_to_the_Eye_of_the_Storm|(''The Project)]] 21:13, 11 October 2007 (UTC) 94L.INVEST AoI - NW Caribbean Hmm. Another new one, NHC seems to like this one. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. --Patteroast 20:47, 5 October 2007 (UTC) :I also like this system. I've been tracking it since it was a small low; now some thunderstorms have sprung up. Highly favorable environment, very low wind shear (at the moment), and a small amount of model consensus. I'd say put your money on this guy. Waitin' for 15L, [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']](Talk) [[User:68-100-190-56/Looking_to_the_Eye_of_the_Storm|(The Project)]] 21:38, 5 October 2007 (UTC) ::Uh oh. This one might even merge with the Bahama blob. Remember Lorenzo, the result of the merger of several disturbances? Now there are SIX areas in the TWO!!! Things are getting busy *uh uh uh*. The. Is. 2007Astro'sHurricane 01:02, 6 October 2007 (UTC) 94L.INVEST Another Invest. Anyway, I expect this to strengthen into at least a tropical storm before hitting the Yucatan. 71.7.210.87 20:03, 6 October 2007 (UTC) :Meh, give it time. Needs to develop a bit more. Cyclone 1 logged out. 20:37, 6 October 2007 (UTC) ::Latest HWRF run gives a category 3 landfall in Cuba! --Patteroast 12:18, 8 October 2007 (UTC) :::GDFL also brings it up to tropical storm by the time it reaches the Yucatan, but instead of recurving it into Cuba right off they have it dwindling over land before moving back off in that direction. Interesting to see what becomes of this. 67.155.250.26 17:46, 8 October 2007 (UTC) :::Latest model runs look a little less optimistic about this thing's future, though the NHC seems more interested in it than before. TD 14 in the near future, perhaps? 67.155.250.26 22:11, 8 October 2007 (UTC) ::::Uh oh. The models are stumped. They have no idea where this storm is heading. None of them agree. So it could go anywhere. It could influence any other wave. The recon was cancelled, though. 2007Astro'sHurricane 00:56, 9 October 2007 (UTC) GFDL takes it back through into the Caribbean as a healthy storm, so this could get interesting. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']](Talk) [[User:68-100-190-56/Looking_to_the_Eye_of_the_Storm|(The Project)]] 01:30, 9 October 2007 (UTC) :NHC is less impressed with it and I can understand why, it's just running out of time to develop before moving over land. Whether it loops back out and has a chance to develop again as suggested by that GDFL run, we'll have to wait and see, but it looks like this won't be doing much in the immediate future. 67.155.250.26 16:14, 9 October 2007 (UTC) ::Ref the last GFDL and CMC, and GFDL doesn't even focus it (it's usually much stronger with focus than without)! [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']](Talk) [[User:68-100-190-56/Looking_to_the_Eye_of_the_Storm|(The Project)]] 18:57, 9 October 2007 (UTC) :::Is it just me, or is this thing intensifying over land? [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']](Talk) [[User:68-100-190-56/Looking_to_the_Eye_of_the_Storm|(The Project)]] 22:41, 9 October 2007 (UTC) ::::Just you. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 13:10, 10 October 2007 (UTC) :::::F***! The NHC has completely lost it. They cancelled all the areas in the TWO. In my books, that's 15 areas potentially conducive for developement. With that many, it's only a matter of time before a few areas go back up. That system that's supposed to absorb the former 92-93L is still over land and giving us clouds and showers. Now the NHC is bathing in crap, as well as shoving it into their eyes. That's why they're going blind. Seriously though, I don't see how half a dozen AoIs could go away at once. Just wait. This season is going to be way above average. I'd say about as active as 1995. Also, could you guys stop making obscene comments, they're straddling the border of a personal attack. 2007Astro'sHurricane 17:23, 10 October 2007 (UTC) ::::::OMG. LBAR overdevelopes ''everything. It made 90.L dump itself right over my house, it predicted Melissa would strengthen in the open ocean or become a re-Vince or re-Delta, and now it predicts that this storm will be a hurricane and hit Wiki Central head-on. "Head-on, apply directly to the hurricane! Head-on, apply directly to the Wikimedia Foundation! Head-on, apply directly to the LBAR!" Anyway, this storm could still go anywhere. You never know. By the way, GFDL dissipates it, then redevelops near Lorenzo-territory. This is also close to where Dean hit. It might dissapate, or a few could redevelop. Let's wait and see. 2007Astro'sHurricane 17:40, 10 October 2007 (UTC) Eric, Eric, Eric, how long can something develop over land? Not for a day! And the NHC has gone completely bazonkers. And no more crap, PLEASE NO MORE! And stop with the head-on stuff, that's C1's copyright material. But in real life, this thing is off the coast now, and gaining strength. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP'At School]](Talk) [[User:68-100-190-56/Looking_to_the_Eye_of_the_Storm|(The Project)]] 19:23, 10 October 2007 (UTC) 95L.INVEST It's up!! It is VERY far north too, out in unknown territory. Could be upgraded as soon as tonight. Next Vince? Cyclone 1 logged out. 20:37, 6 October 2007 (UTC) :OK... Just when you thought this season couldn't get any weirder, look at this: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/images/tropical/133.JPG. Yep, it's a 50 mph storm headed straight for Europe, and it's gaining tropical characteristics. Vince who? |'C A I N E R'||''ninety-one| 20:42, 6 October 2007 (UTC) ::Weird, but not heading for Europe. It's a fishie. 'Cyclone1(21:23 UTC -6/10/2007) :::Gone. --Patteroast 15:00, 7 October 2007 (UTC) ::::The NHC is eating crap. All the invests are gone except one. They had SIX areas on the TWO this morning, and now just one! That's just weird. I think at least one of them will be re-invested. Only time will tell. 2007Astro'sHurricane 00:42, 9 October 2007 (UTC) Don't try humor, Astro. Leave that to the people who have actually eaten crap, or done something similar. Like drinking Diet Pepsi. Seriously though, most of them ARE dead, except for this one thing several hundred miles off of the Bahamas. [[User:68-100-190-56|'''IP]](Talk) [[User:68-100-190-56/Looking_to_the_Eye_of_the_Storm|(The Project)]] 01:29, 9 October 2007 (UTC) AoI: Near Jamaica That's a lot of strong convection in one place. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 13:12, 10 October 2007 (UTC) :Interesting blob there, but, with what we've had this season, we'll have to wait and see if it develops. - Enzo Aquarius 15:19, 10 October 2007 (UTC) ::Jamaica was nowhere near 95L. And I believe I did see some beginning signs of a low earlier in the day. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP'At School]](Talk) [[User:68-100-190-56/Looking_to_the_Eye_of_the_Storm|(''The Project)]] 19:18, 10 October 2007 (UTC) AoI - Lows Near the Lesser Antilles There are two of these buggers, both of them looking a little organized and having some evidence of cyclonic turning. They are about to hit an area of 31 degrees SSTs. I haven't checked model developments, but any low associated with convection in that area should be monitored. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP'At School]](Talk) [[User:68-100-190-56/Looking_to_the_Eye_of_the_Storm|(The Project)]] 19:18, 10 October 2007 (UTC) :The one near 57 west is bombing out. This could get interesting. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP'At School]](Talk) [[User:68-100-190-56/Looking_to_the_Eye_of_the_Storm|(The Project)]] 19:53, 10 October 2007 (UTC) ::Or not. They're dead. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']](Talk) [[User:68-100-190-56/Looking_to_the_Eye_of_the_Storm|(The Project)]] 10:37, 11 October 2007 (UTC) 15L.NONAME 96L.INVEST Neat sub-tropical formation in the central Atlantic about 30 degrees off the east coast of Florida. Predicted to head northeast. - Enzo Aquarius 15:18, 11 October 2007 (UTC) Any models bring it close to Nova Scotia? :Not that I can tell. NHC thinks it might develop a little before getting absorbed - I suppose we'll have to wait for the next model runs though :) 67.155.250.26 16:31, 11 October 2007 (UTC) :Na. The NHC says any increase in t-storm activity will cause this to be regarded as a tropical depression. That's pretty hardcore. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP'At School]](Talk) [[User:68-100-190-56/Looking_to_the_Eye_of_the_Storm|(The Project)]] 16:31, 11 October 2007 (UTC) ::Definitely noticed by the NHC now, possible development in 48 hours. - Enzo Aquarius 16:57, 11 October 2007 (UTC) :::Finally! Jeez. It looks exactly like a sheared tropical cyclone. It looks like it has an LLCC and everything. Shear or no shear, I'm still impressed. May not get a name though, because of the shear. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 18:59, 11 October 2007 (UTC) 15L.NONAME Upgrade at 5! 'Cyclone1(19:53 UTC -11/10/2007) :Forecast to be a dud, though, so it doesn't look like Noel material. 67.155.250.26 20:47, 11 October 2007 (UTC) Tropical Depression 15 Official. ''Cyclone1(21:08 UTC -11/10/2007) :GODDAMNIT Cyclone1! How do you do this?! [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']](Talk) [[User:68-100-190-56/Looking_to_the_Eye_of_the_Storm|(The Project)]] 21:10, 11 October 2007 (UTC) ::With help from a little forum called Storm2k. :P 'Cyclone1(21:28 UTC -11/10/2007) :::ICK! I hate forums; they just don't work like this place does. We need some kind of information stream for everything here. Recruitment, perhaps? Or maybe just a few ultra-dedicated users. Most of the people on the forums seem stupid and ignorant anyway (for an even MUCH worse example, see the posts on Jeff Masters' Wunderblog.) [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']](Talk) [[User:68-100-190-56/Looking_to_the_Eye_of_the_Storm|(The Project)]] 21:32, 11 October 2007 (UTC) ::::True, there are LOADS of wishcasters. But, I like Storm2k. Once you get used to the layout, it's kinda nice. But I'm not here to promote other forums, so back to the depression. (BTW, Wunderground sucks.) Cyclone1(21:38 UTC -11/10/2007) :::::HA!! Who predicted this exact thing to happen: 96L develops but does not get a name? Believe that was me. I feel badass. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 21:37, 11 October 2007 (UTC) ::::::Whoa, Eric. It's not dead yet. 'Cyclone1(21:38 UTC -11/10/2007) It's welcome to prove me and NHC wrong. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 21:42, 11 October 2007 (UTC) :How did you post that... Never mind. And you, Eric, used the word "may". As in "may" not get a name. Yeah. Spot on, buddy. GFDL to TS (but it's really inaccurate at only 6-12 hours) and HWRF keeps it a weak depression. GFS and CMC, etc. don't do much with it either. [[User:68-100-190-56|'''IP]](Talk) [[User:68-100-190-56/Looking_to_the_Eye_of_the_Storm|(The Project)]] 21:47, 11 October 2007 (UTC) ::Yay, another instantly-killed-by-shear storm in the Atlantic. This season is putting me to sleep. Bob rulz 22:16, 11 October 2007 (UTC) :::We still have all month. Cyclone1(22:28 UTC -11/10/2007) ::::Yeah, all those category fives, super rapid intensifying cat ones, high latitude storms, strangely placed ones, and other super unusual phenomenon ARE VERY SCREWING BORING. Has it occurred to what it takes for a storm to FORM in this kind of shear? [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']](Talk) [[User:68-100-190-56/Looking_to_the_Eye_of_the_Storm|(The Project)]] 23:17, 11 October 2007 (UTC) :::::Lorenzo and Humberto happened so fast I almost missed them. The only storms that really kept my interest were Dean and Felix, which were pretty amazing storms. Ingrid and Karen held my interest for a while due to their potential, but both were killed by, what else, strong shear. :::::To be fair, I have very high standards, though. :P And Cyclone1 is right, we still have this month to get through, and November and December can produce their fair bit of surprises, too. Bob rulz 21:24, 12 October 2007 (UTC) ::::::I hate to say it, but that storm sucked. :P - Enzo Aquarius 21:26, 12 October 2007 (UTC) It looks pretty cool though. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']](Talk) [[User:68-100-190-56/Looking_to_the_Eye_of_the_Storm|(The Project)]] 21:38, 12 October 2007 (UTC) 97L.INVEST AoI: North of the Canaries http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/neatl/avn-l.jpg Tight little swirl north of the canaries. Could gain convection tonight. Watch the NRL for a 97L. Cyclone1(19:04 UTC -11/10/2007) :http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/neatl/loop-avn.html Cyclone1(19:08 UTC -11/10/2007) ::Dang... I would've never noticed that. I doubt anything will come of it, but it's definitely 2007-esque stuff (as in, really f%#king strange). [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']](Talk) [[User:68-100-190-56/Looking_to_the_Eye_of_the_Storm|(The Project)]] 21:12, 11 October 2007 (UTC) 97L.INVEST Unofficial, up on Wikipedia (funny place to look for those things), and NRL seems, according to them, to acknowledge its existence. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']](Talk) [[User:68-100-190-56/Looking_to_the_Eye_of_the_Storm|(The Project)]] 21:30, 11 October 2007 (UTC) :But not on NRL? Strange... Cyclone1(21:39 UTC -11/10/2007) ::Well developed circulation, but without convection this one's going nowhere. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 21:39, 11 October 2007 (UTC) :Hmm, reincarnation of 95L, maybe? It's not even on the TWO, and unless this pulls a Vince, or enters the Meditteranean, I'd be somewhat uninterested. 2007Astro'sHurricane 21:40, 11 October 2007 (UTC) :::What the? All this within 60 seconds and not a single edit conflict? Oh no, did I forget an edit summary again? Eeek. I mean, NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Ok, maybe not, it's just an edit summary :P . 2007Astro'sHurricane 21:43, 11 October 2007 (UTC) ::::Actually, some pressure models do take this guy's remnants into the Med Sea. And I'm really surprised this hasn't gotten to an edit confli- ... better not finish that sentence. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']](Talk) [[User:68-100-190-56/Looking_to_the_Eye_of_the_Storm|(''The Project)]] 21:49, 11 October 2007 (UTC) Noooo way, not a remnant of 95. 95 was completely absorbed, and this formed from a separate storm complex. Cyclone1(21:58 UTC -11/10/2007) :Huh? How are you all on all of a sudden? This is becoming faster that instant messaging! 2007Astro'sHurricane 22:01, 11 October 2007 (UTC) ::In theory we should be edit conflicting each other. Anyway, I don't think this will do anything, but you never know. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']](Talk) [[User:68-100-190-56/Looking_to_the_Eye_of_the_Storm|(The Project)]] 22:13, 11 October 2007 (UTC) :::Up on the NRL. Woohoo. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']](Talk) [[User:68-100-190-56/Looking_to_the_Eye_of_the_Storm|(The Project)]] 10:37, 12 October 2007 (UTC) Potential AoI: Off the coast of Ontario, I mean, New York (edit conflict! That's you, IP)Large storm stretching from Ontario to Newfoundland to the Carolinas. Yesterday, there was an eye-like structure near Michigan or Southern Ontario. Yes, it rained. In fact, some areas are now having snow, that's how strong this thing is. May merge with the former 92-93L, and possibly even the frontal system between Jamaica and the Bahamas, or even TD 15. Might make landfall on Maine. The rest of it just might give me some snow. If it does, that might happen tomorow. In fact, it was a year ago tomorrow that we had our first snow of the 2007-2007 winter. Possible repeat? Will this thing attain Subtropical Depression status? We will wait and see. 2007Astro'sHurricane 21:54, 11 October 2007 (UTC) :Off the coast of....... New.....York? ... ... ... Ooooookay.... Cyclone1(21:56 UTC -11/10/2007) ::Okay, here's an image of the storm. Big storm, isn't it? Ugh, SHIFT+scroll should be destroyed. 2007Astro'sHurricane 22:07, 11 October 2007 (UTC) :::Big storm, but if this becomes a subtropical cyclone, I will jump off the SkyWay bridge. It is no where even kinda near anything that could be considered somewhat sub-tropical. Cyclone1(22:11 UTC -11/10/2007) ::::I see, like, two clouds. Seriously. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']](Talk) [[User:68-100-190-56/Looking_to_the_Eye_of_the_Storm|(The Project)]] 22:12, 11 October 2007 (UTC) The big storm over Ontario... Cyclone1(22:14 UTC -11/10/2007) :You mean, pathetic storm over Ontario which has about as much chance for development as a field of cows. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']](Talk) [[User:68-100-190-56/Looking_to_the_Eye_of_the_Storm|(The Project)]] 23:19, 11 October 2007 (UTC) ::Nominally speaking, a field of cow is a great area to develop. No buildings to tear down to start with :-D--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 00:32, 12 October 2007 (UTC) :::Now, about that eye over Ontario, here's the loop. See? Kinda like hurricane Huron, huh? Now the system over the Bahamas, although development is not expected, seems to have a pseudo-eye. Thing could become (yet another) weather bomb for the Atlantic Provinces. That thunderstorm over New York is looking impressive. Anyway, this probably doesn't have any better chance than the other Gulf Stream disturbances we've had this year, but since it's October, we could have a Nor'easter. What's weird is, a lot of models love to "explode" these storms right over Scandinavia. Another unnamed_tropical_storm_(2006), or unnamed_tropical_storm_(2005), perhaps? Let's see if it snows tomorrow, it's expected to be just above freezing tomorrow morning! Brr! 2007Astro'sHurricane 00:52, 12 October 2007 (UTC) ::::If you just click play, it's the eye over Quebec. The one I'm talking about is only if you click 48 or higher. 2007Astro'sHurricane 00:56, 12 October 2007 (UTC) God, did anyone tell you we absolutely LOVE you here, Guillaume? Yeah, I see what you mean. We over here got that system today, and nothing happened. And I have no idea what you are talking about, still. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']](Talk) [[User:68-100-190-56/Looking_to_the_Eye_of_the_Storm|(The Project)]] 01:19, 12 October 2007 (UTC) :One can but do one's best. Wouldn't want to let anyone take themselves too seriously :). That said, was that minor rainfall in Montreal this afternoon and evening (and when I say minor, I mean a few drop) supposed to be this big monstrous system?--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 04:19, 12 October 2007 (UTC) ::I got TONS of rain from that system (and got soaked >_>), but this is most interesting indeed! - Enzo Aquarius 21:29, 12 October 2007 (UTC) :::GODDAMNIT, WTF are you people talking about?! [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']](Talk) [[User:68-100-190-56/Looking_to_the_Eye_of_the_Storm|(The Project)]] 21:38, 12 October 2007 (UTC) Retirements At A Glance It's currently peak season for the Atlantic and we've had storms from Andrea to Ingrid. My question is simple: What names do you think may stand a chance of retirement thus far? My speculation and chances are: *Andrea: 5%. May storm. Minimal damage, but indirectly responsible for 6 deaths. *Barry: 2%. Little damage and killed fewer than Andrea, although one death was direct. *Chantal: 5%. Almost completely forgettable while tropical. *Dean: 95%. Smashed Jamaica and killed 40+ total. *Erin: 20%. Added to already major flooding problem. 18 total deaths, half direct. Klaus-like. *Felix: 90%. Over 100 deaths in Nicaragua. Severe damage likely. *Gabrielle: 5%. Forgettable. *Humberto: 30%. Only one death, but going by USD values at the time of the hurricane, surpassed Diane and Lili in terms of damage, and both of these were retired. Outside shot at retirement. *Ingrid: 0%. Want to talk about your duds? *Jerry: 0%. Bigger dud than Ingrid, but odd location of formation. *Karen: SA. *Lorenzo: Some idea of damage would be nice here. (~4 deaths) So overall, I think the retirements for this year will definently include Dean and Felix. Erin may also get retired if the monetary damages from it are high enough when released and Humberto may get retired if the current estimates are correct. Any other ideas or opinions? Jake52 My island 02:08, 15 September 2007 (UTC) : I say Dean and Felix will definitely get the boot. Anything else thus far is extremely doubtful to no retirement period. - Enzo Aquarius 04:32, 15 September 2007 (UTC) ::I say Dean 75% (there have been much, much worse) and Felix 70% (same reason). Humberto 15%, Erin 9%, the others I don't see getting retired in a million years. If you want, I will say that these a wee bit conservative, and I do hope that Felix is retired, Dean maybe (since those were the nicest SOB storms I've ever followed in this basin, maybe scratch Wilma). All four of these could be conceivably retired, but I put the chances of all four at around zero. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 11:35, 15 September 2007 (UTC) :::I think Felix has a better chance of getting retired than Dean. To be clear, I think both should be retired, but Felix is Nicaragua's worst hurricane since Joan in 1988. I rank deaths higher than damage because deaths have a greater psycological impact than damage. Retirement is based on the impact it had on a society as a whole. I believe that storms with high death tolls have a greater impact on a culture than those with just high damage. This is why the non-retirement of Hurricane Gordon infuriated me to a greater extent than most people. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 19:17, 15 September 2007 (UTC) ::::Just like Megadeth trying to get over Jethro Tull winning the "Heavy Metal" Grammy over them, eh? Anyway, being Cat 5 does not guarantee a retirement (see Emily; the Cleo that got the name retired was not a Cat 5 but a Cat 4 that did some damage afterward). Felix ''will be retired, and right now I'd say that Humberto is slightly more likely to be retired than Dean (if Jamaica doesn't nominate Dean for retirement, see it in 2013!). 147.70.236.93 21:18, 15 September 2007 (UTC) I never consider deaths particularly important unless they total above 300. In the case of storms like Mitch, non-retirement is not an issue, on the other hand, storms like Wilma are also guaranteed to be retired. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 21:23, 15 September 2007 (UTC) :About Jamaica and Dean's chances, correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't it Jamaica and not Mexico that got Gilbert canned? What I find stunning is that this season seems like a mock-up 1988 when it comes to the likely candidates for retirement. Dean was a Gilbert imitator (though not as powerful) and Felix resembled Joan (though so far not as deadly, but more powerful, plus Joan survived Central America). Jake52 My island 22:29, 15 September 2007 (UTC) ::I'd say Felix will be retired. It killed over 100 people. Dean I'd say there's about a 75% chance. I think the only other storm that really has a chance to be retired is Erin, but that's not likely. What did Humberto do to get retired? I don't see it. Bob rulz 22:46, 15 September 2007 (UTC) :::Gilbert killed over 300 people in Mexico, I think that kinda sealed that deal Jamaica just was a little icing on the cake. The WMO started using drugs in the early 1990's. They retired Klaus, which killed four people and then they didn't retire Tropical Storm Bret in 1993 which killed 122 people in Venezuela, nor did they retire Gert, which killed 70-90 in Mexico. Then the whole Gordon thing in 1994 which is inexcusable. Gordon was nothing short of an outrage. Period. Other than those, the only other blatent non-retirement I can think of was 1955's Hilda. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 00:46, 16 September 2007 (UTC) ::::You always talk about Gordon dontchya? That was kind of a large blunder on their part. I think it has to do with being a very weak storm at that stage. It's almost like Jeanne (although she was retired). I hold my estimates, though, and plus or minus ten is applicable to Dean and Felix. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 00:59, 16 September 2007 (UTC) :::::Yeah, I lost a significant amount of respect for the WMO after I heard about Gordon and you bring up a good point about the intensity. I think Bret wasn't retired for the same reason. I think it took the Allison disaster to make the WMO realize that a tropical storm could actually do significant damage and that it wasn't just negligence. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 18:55, 16 September 2007 (UTC) We're lucky something like that hasn't happened again. There might actually be a third hit around there; a lot of models are predicting something to go through there. This is a really sucky year weather-wise. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 19:10, 16 September 2007 (UTC) :Third hit where? -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 23:38, 16 September 2007 (UTC) ::You guys are wrong about Chantal, BTW IMO. It caused around 5 million dollars in damage in the area around Placentia Bay. Its residents are still angry the government didn't do enough. So it's not entirely forgettable. Thus, I give it a 3% chance. 2007Astro'sHurricane 00:00, 17 September 2007 (UTC) :::"Storm does less damage than Bill Gates does annually! Global crisis at hand!" WMO does NOT have enough money for all that crack. Third hit Texas. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 00:28, 17 September 2007 (UTC) Keep in mind that the WMO can't retire a hurricane if no affected country nominate it for retirement, IIRC. I believe I heard Mexico was pretty poor on nominating...--132.211.210.107 23:07, 18 September 2007 (UTC) :Gert in 1993 was not nominated. Not sure about Bret. Gordon ''was nominated. Hurricane Klaus was nominated not by the U.S, but by Guadalupe. There was supposedly some damage to historic structures there but I don't really know the reasoning behind its nomination. Several Pacific retirements are a mystery too (Knut, Iva, Fefa, Fico). -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 23:50, 18 September 2007 (UTC) ::Here's my stats: ::Andrea:5% or lower - The storm did nothing much, just a couple fatalitites and .77 inches of rain. ::Barry:5% or lower -Unless a report comes out of substantial damage, I'd put a no on this one. ::Chantal:12.5%- 5.5 million in NFL is not much, although its got a say in what it wants to do with the name. ::Dean: 95-100%- Couple billion in damage, over 40 deaths, pretty much a retired name. ::Erin: 15% - When and if the TCR comes out, the damage total could be substantial enough for retirement. We'll have to wait however. ::Felix: 90-95%- Damage report will come out at some point, also 130+ deaths. ::Gabrielle: 5% or lower - Pretty much the same as Andrea. ::Humberto: 15-20% - If that 900 million was correct, we could've had a retirement here. Let's wait for the TCR. ::Ingrid: 0% - First fishspinner of the season, Not a chance. ::Jerry: 0% - Second fishspinner of the season, Not a chance. ::Karen: Unknown - Hasn't affected land yet, and very weak ::Lorenzo: Unknown - Wait till damage reports come out. So far that's my stats.Mitchazenia 20:55, 28 September 2007 (UTC) :::Well, here's my prediction. :::Andrea: 6%. Off-season storm, killed 6 people, attained hurricane-force winds prior to formation, caused minimal damage, was quick to get an article. :::Barry: 4%. Killed 3 people, affected reigons of Mexico later to be hit by hurricane Dean, near-direct hit on Wiki-headquaters as tropical storm, survived shear, tropical storm force until hitting an area near Boston, major rainfall on Georgia, dumped a little rain in S Ontario. :::Chantal: 5%. Killed no one, caused nearly 6 million dollars of damage in Newfoundland, people affected by damage still angry, bridge destroyed, flooding in Newfoundland. :::Dean: 90%. Long-lasting category 5 cape verde hurricane, direct strike on Chetumal City as Category 5, caused rising oil prices and fears of strike on Texas, caused nearly $ 4 billion in dammage and killed more than 40 people. :::Erin: 22%. Major flooding in already-soaked Texas and Oklahoma, killed nearly 20 people, partially responsible for 2007 Midwest Flooding, responsible for nearly 20 more deaths and over 100 million dollars in damage, caused oil prices to rise, affected more than 10 states, tropical storm-force winds over Chicago, destryoed many cars and bridges. :::Felix: 85%. Killed over 130 people, destroyed Miskito Cays completely, broke numerous records, Mitch-like, category 5 landfall in Nicaragua, nearly strengthened to unimaginable strengths had it not gone through an ERC. :::Gabrielle: 3%. No one killed, Minimal damage, heavy rain around Carolinas, early fears of major hurricane, absorbed by strong low near Newfoundland. :::Humberto: 27%. Killed one person, quick strengthening to Category 1, near-direct hit on Houston, flooding in Texas and Louisiana, half a billion dollars in damage. :::Ingrid: 1%. Complete dud, nearly strengthened had wind shear not destroyed it, dissipating before hitting Puerto Rico, fears of a near-Floyd, no article. :::Ten: 1%. Possible remnants of Humberto, action taken by New Orleans, near strengthening to Tropical Storm, quick to get an article, tornado in Florida. :::Jerry: 1%. Complete dud, passed between Newfoundland and Azores, merged with storm near British Isles and Greenland. :::Karen: 1%. Complete dud, near strengthening to hurricane status, dissipated before hitting Puerto Rico, original fears of hurricane heading for United States. :::Lorenzo: 23%. Broke Humberto's record, hit area near that affected by Dean, 5 people killed, rain on Mexico City, quick strengthening. :::Melissa: 1%. Complete dud, near re-Vince, uncertain early trajectory, quick dissipation, tied September tropical storm record. :::Well, there you go. 2007Astro'sHurricane 22:47, 3 October 2007 (UTC) For such a "quiet" season, we've had one hectic September! Eight named Atlantic storms so far this month, and the initial NHC advisory/discussion for TD #14 indicates the possible arrival of Melissa on Sunday (30 September). Even the infamous 2007 had only five named storms in September... Whew! 147.70.242.40 15:47, 28 September 2007 (UTC) :You mean 2005, of course. Of course, that's an excellent point, one that also applies well to a season about five years back, where the record this season will almost certainly tie was set. I predict, however, that there will be some more intense storms even after the end of September. This isn't your ordinary season, that's a pretty much universal concept. And could all you anons who post so many things get a username? It's not easy to quote "147.70.242.40"! [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 19:02, 28 September 2007 (UTC) ::Some people cherish their anonymity :) 67.155.250.26 20:11, 28 September 2007 (UTC) :::Then we'll just have to give you userpages and nicknames ; ). But a good point has been made often on Wikipedia that you have more anonymity if people don't know what your IP address is. You could also do what I did. Back on topic though, I don't think this season yet qualifies as "quiet" either ; ). [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 20:42, 28 September 2007 (UTC) I created my first account! [[User:HurricaneJosh|'PI']]Talk 01:43, 30 September 2007 (UTC) :Now, if only we can persuade the rest of them >: ) [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 11:37, 30 September 2007 (UTC) ::Quiet my ass. This season has been decidedly unquiet. We've had 13 storms and it's not quite October yet, two Category 5s and eight storms this September, which matches a record. There's been nothing quiet about this season. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 19:28, 30 September 2007 (UTC) :::The real reason for the claims of "quiet" is the lack of hurricanes, which can be explained by all of the tropical cyclones except two forming in high shear or close to land. Back to you, Eric. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']](Talk) [[User:68-100-190-56/Looking_to_the_Eye_of_the_Storm|(''The Project)]] 20:24, 30 September 2007 (UTC) ::::At this time in 2001, the Atlantic season had this exact same number of hurricanes and finished with nine. Also, I believe Karen was briefly a hurricane. It's impossible to know what October will bring. It was the most active month in 2005, with seven storms including the strongest storm ever measured in the Atlantic and three other hurricanes. Go tell the folks in Nicaragua it's been a quiet season. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 22:51, 30 September 2007 (UTC) And with the SSTs not cooling down any time soon, you probably have a good point there, Eric. Currently, wind shear is also looking good for the Caribbean, which is the breeding ground of October storms. Cape Verde is starting to cool down, which is a sign we'll probably have some typical October storms, probably a few more majors still out there, eh? This has been your 7:45 news update on the 2007 False Accusation scandal. And here's our other forecasters with their predictions. Signing off, this is Internet Protocol. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']](Talk) [[User:68-100-190-56/Looking_to_the_Eye_of_the_Storm|(''The Project)]] 23:48, 30 September 2007 (UTC) :And now a word from our sponsor. "Head-on, Apply directly to the forehead! Head-on, Apply directly to the forehead! Head-on, Apply directly to the forehead!" Cyclone1(23:42 UTC -1/10/2007) ::"And now, our new product! First-on, ultra welfare relief! Apply directly to the congressman!" You are so damn good at that, always getting the joke in at the perfect time. You remind me of a great humorist who doesn't actually live to far away from you OR hurricanes (read the bit in his new book about the 2004 hurricane season, it's hilarious). Anyway, October doesn't look like it'll be a pushover either with this new 90L system coming onto the scene. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']](Talk) [[User:68-100-190-56/Looking_to_the_Eye_of_the_Storm|(The Project)]] 00:47, 2 October 2007 (UTC)